Season Preview - Real Salt Lake

Ten wins, ten losses and ten draws. Real Salt Lake were the very definition of average in 2008. And yet they made the playoffs, and were a post-widths distance away from taking New York to extra time in the Western Conference Final, a game that they dominated. So expectations are higher than they might be for any other average club.

And the Utah club is even easier to figure out going forward, because they hardly made any changes to their roster from 2008. But one of the late additions they made last season proved to have a crucial impact. Canadian winger Will Johnson served as a sparkplug, and had the goal of the year (well, officially, though I'd rate Marcelo Gallardo's audacious volley higher) on a ridiculously sublime flick, turn and blast. Outside of Johnson, this off-season they drafted a raw defensive mid project and claimed Ned Grabavoy off waivers. Pardon me for not being too excited. They are looking at adding Luis Miguel Escalada, a Argentine striker with potential but who is a bit of an unknown quantity at this point.

It is another Argentine that carries their team, and one who is one of the more unheralded stars in all of MLS. Javier Morales, totaler of 6 goals and 15 assists last year, is a fantastic presence in the attacking midfield role. On the other hand, if he gets hurt, RSL will struggle badly. He's joined in attack by Yura Movsisyan, whose name I incredibly spelled correctly from memory. Movsisyan really came on strong at the end of last season, and I'm not sure if he'll keep it up. Also at forward is Robbie Findley, who would be a great player if he didn't have the first touch of a drunken rhinocerous.

The back line, however, is where RSL really looks to stand out. Their defense is possibly the best in the west. A central defense of Nat Borchers and the excellent Jamison Olave, who came to Salt Lake from Fredy Montero's Deportivo Cali, is solid. With Olave signed for 4 more years, they have a good core to build around. Chris Wingert and Ian Joy on the wings are both very quality, plus there's good depth in defense as well. And I can't forget the heart and soul of Salt Lake, holding midfielder Kyle Beckerman. Though he does sport the ridiculous white-guy dreadlocks, he makes up for it with his consistently passionate play on the pitch. It's hard not to like Beckerman.

There aren't really any apparent weaknesses on the Real Salt Lake roster. Striker would probably be the thinnest position, but if Luis Miguel Escalada pans out then that isn't much of a question either. They definitely look to be better than average this year, and they should be drawing increased crowds to shiny new Rio Tinto Stadium, which is for my money the second-best venue in MLS. And a repeat to the playoffs looks likely. Yes, if you're a Real Salt Lake fan, there's a lot of reasons to be excited about 2009. Aside from the fact that you live in Salt Lake.

Season Preview - Chicago Fire

No team in MLS appears more confident heading into the 2009 campaign than the Chicago Fire. If you go to their team website, you will be greeted with an advertisment for a five-game ticket plan which includes, as they call it, 'Playoff Game One.' They're actually that sure that they'll make the playoffs this year.

And to be honest, they have good reason to be. Chicago was extremely strong last year, finishing second to the Columbus Crew both in the Eastern Conference regular season and conference finals, and missing out on MLS cup by just one goal. Everything appeared to be working well for the franchise, whether it was the on-field play, the notably strong and passionate fan support, the uniforms - ok, the block 'Best Buy' with the white stripe across the front does look a bit crap, but that's a minor point.

The best news of all is that they look to be almost exactly the same squad that they had last year. The only players they lost were low-impact reserves like Stephen King and Andy Herron. They return the entire defensive line, which with Wilman Conde, Bakary Soumare and Gonzalo Segares is certainly the best in the league. And if Dasan Robinson can stay healthy, it could be even better. Scary. Marco Pappa oozed potential playing on the wing in limited minutes last year. If he starts, watch out. Opposite him, Justin Mapp could be a truly standout winger if he decides to care for an entire season. Logan Pause couldn't attack goal to save his life, but he is still a solid defensive midfielder. He doesn't have to attack, though, because of the guys up front.

A lot of the offensive responsibilities rest on the hunched shoulders of number-10 attacking midfield Mexican legend Cuahtemoc Blanco. You can hate him for his scowling on-pitch theatrics, and many do, but it's hard to question his heart, passion and creative playmaking ability. And of course, he is aided up top by Brian McBride, himself an American legend. He's played in 3 World Cups, scored 62 goals in MLS, almost single-handedly saved Fulham from relegation in the EPL in 2008... the list of accolades goes on. Oh yeah, and Chris Rolfe is pretty decent too, what with 9 goals and 7 assists last year, playing his way into National Team contention. And I haven't even gotten into the potential of Mike Banner or Patrick Nyarko. Bottom line, Chicago are stacked.

(And did I mention that netminder Jon Busch was the league's top goalkeeper last year?)

In my opinion, the best teams in MLS are always those that have a solid lineup, all eleven spots, with no discernable weaknesses in the core of the starters. Houston had it in 2006 and 2007, as did New England. Columbus had it last year. Chicago looks to be that way this year. Unless they have a ridiculous amount of injuries, or Jon Busch forgets how to play keeper, the Fire look they'll make good on that promise for Playoff Game One. And possibly Playoff Game Two. If they aren't the best team in the league, they're mighty close.

Season Preview - FC Dallas

In some ways, the history of FC Dallas is a microcosm for all of Major League Soccer. They first came into existence in 1996 as the Dallas Burn, with hideous uniforms and a giant football stadium as their home. This existence was very shaky in the late 90s and early 2000's, as they actually played in a high school football stadium one season to save money. But eventually, they moved into their own shiny soccer stadium, rebranded with a less ridiculous name and uniforms, and acquired a local rival in Houston. Since then, the future has been bright.

On the pitch, however, the recent past has been ugly for Dallas. Finishing out of the playoffs last year, the hoops went through an extremely turbulent season involving a coaching change. They finished the year under the guidance of Schellas Hyndman, but still stumbled to the finish. FCD had talent on the team, and one of the leagues best overall players in forward Kenny Cooper, but they never seemed to gel and come together, especially in midfield. At times, the defense was shaky as well, with the sluggish Duilio Davino doing little more than taking up space on the pitch and the salary cap.

A full season under Hyndman - and especially, a full pre-season for the team to come together - sound help this team achieve their full potential. Or at least something close to it. If Cooper doesn't jet to Europe and stays around all season to partner with a rejuvinated Jeff Cunningham, the forwards will be very dangerous. The midfield looks to be much more settled now, with a true attacking midfielder in new Colombian signee David Fereirra filling what had been FC Dallas's biggest hole. Dallas also acquired Dave Van den Bergh, one of the very best left wingers in MLS. Andre Rocha on the other wing showed great promise and could have a breakout season this year. Not a lot has been done to better the defense, and that could be a weak point, though the addition by subtraction of Davino should help. And Dario Sala, my single least favorite player in the league, is nonetheless competant in goal. The team, to me, looks solid.

The biggest worries for FC Dallas may in fact be off the pitch. The franchise has long struggled to draw fans wherever they play. Every time I've watched their home games on tv, the gaping swaths of empty seats that fill Pizza Hut Park are very noticeable. And very recently have come reports that FCD have sold just 5000 tickets for their season opener (INCLUDING season tickets), a high-profile matchup against Cuahtemoc Blanco and the Chicago Fire. My reaction is somewhere between embarassed and saddened. Numbers like that, regardless of which team, are no good for the league.

I really do think that Dallas could make some noise this year, and gun to my head, I'd say they make the playoffs. Even as they have problems off the pitch, they have shored up most of their major weaknesses and look to be improving on it. And their attack looks balanced and powerful. FC Dallas are a club that should be putting on some entertaining displays of soccer under the Texas sun. The only question is if anyone will be there to watch them.

Season Preview - DC United

I like DC United. Really. Their uniforms are classy and their fan support is top-notch. And they have a wonderful tradition of winning, which is something almost every club in the young MLS lacks, and they added to it last year by taking the US Open Cup.

That success was deceptive, because for a team that expects to win every year, they failed to even make the playoffs in 2008. (Although, in fairness, United were still technically not eliminated until the final weekend of the season.) They were even worse in Concacaf Champions League play, looking completely uninspired and often trotting out second-team players who were totally outmatched. Down the stretch, the black and red were relying on USL callups to be the sparks in both defense (Greg Janicki) and attack (Boyzee Khumalo. Yes, that's really his name). The main problem on the field was newly signed playmaker Marcello Gallardo. Or rather, the lack of Gallardo on the field - while brilliant when healthy, he was injured more often than not. Goalkeeping woes and a leaky defense didn't help either.

Over the offseason, there was one big move made, which was the return of Christian Gomez to DC. Gomez, a beloved star central midfielder for United from 2004 to 2007, will hopefully fit right in to his old role after effectively a one-year exile in Colorado. He joins an attack that, when healthy, has more starpower than any other in the league. The legendary Jaime Moreno (who has the most goals all-time in MLS, 122) is partnered up top with Luciano Emilio, who himself has scored 31 times in just 2 seasons. With Fred and Santino Quaranta on the flanks, they have the potential to be very dangerous.

There is a major problem in attack, though - age. DC has some old dudes. Moreno was their best player last year, but he's 35 now, at the age where a striker can completely fall off any given season. Gomez himself is 34 and Emilio is 31. Relying on 3 over-30 players to lead you offensively is very risky, especially since the reserves at forward are somewhat lacking. Another question is keeper. Even when healthy, Louis Crayton is always an adventure between the pipes. But the biggest trouble spot is the back line. The USL callup Janicki will be relied on to start, most likely, and Canadian signing Dejan Jakovic will be relied on heavily since the team lacks a standout defender.

I went into this article with the idea that DC United would be back in the playoffs, where they feel they belong, this year. Trouble is, they've got far more areas to worry about than to be confident about. If everyone stays healthier than last year, yeah, they could still be competitive in the east. It'll be tough, though. I think that when summer comes, they'd be better off putting a serious effort into the Concacaf Champions League this time around. Maybe that'll be how they get the trophy that their fans crave and deserve, because I don't see them winning MLS.

Season Preview - San Jose Earthquakes

For obvious reasons, last year, the San Jose Earthquakes were of special interest to Sounders fans. As the expansion club in 2008, the Quakes were an example of what Seattle will go through this year. We can only hope that there will not be similarities in the points column.

As most expansion clubs do, the Quakes struggled. And I’ve written a lot about their struggles. The main point is that they had very little scoring options for much of the season. After picking up British winger Darren Huckerby, their attack was rejuvenated. (Perhaps just ‘juvinated’?) San Jose found more success toward the end of the season, getting themselves back into a tie for last place with Los Angeles while staying in the playoff hunt longer than most thought possible.

Apparently the Quakes are thinking this success will continue, because they made few changes to their roster. The only major ones were signing target forward Cam Weaver, who was a standout for the USL Sounders a few years ago and had most recently been playing in Norway, and the acquisition of former USA nat Bobby Convey. Arguably their most important move was re-signing keeper Joe Cannon, who had a stellar 2008. The rest of the moves were mostly effective-looking shoring up of squad depth. They did lose starters Francisco Lima and James Riley, the latter of whom is now one of Seattle’s best defenders.

Even without Riley, the defense – San Jose’s strength last year – still looks solid. Jason Hernandez remains one of the best one players nobody has heard of. The midfield is solid as well, with Convey, the ever-dangerous Huckerby and Ramiro Corrales. Cannon is a quality presence in goal. Forward is still the question. Arturo Alvarez might play up top, but that would probably relegate Jamaican Ryan Johnson to the bench, and he’s starter quality. On the other hand, Johnson and Weaver are both big banger-type players, and I’m not sure if they’ll work well together.

I’ll just say it right now – I think San Jose can make the playoffs. Not sure if they will, but the talent is there. The nucleus in defense and goal remains, which is what coach Frank Yallop wanted. His team construction is a multi-year process, and I think it’ll pay off this year. Adding Convey is a bit of a gamble – they want him to play attacking mid, which is not his natural position. If he gets his form back, expect San Jose to seriously compete for a spot in the postseason.

Season Preview - Toronto FC

Over the last two years, no club has garnered as much praise for their fans as Toronto FC. And rightfully so – they always sell out BMO Field, have rowdy and passionate fans, and support their team through wins and the much more common losses.

Over those two years, they haven’t really had a lot to cheer about. As an expansion club in 2007, they were flat out terrible, and were marginally better in 2008, but still last in the East. A high degree of roster turnover led to the team never really gelling. Toronto really didn’t have an area of strength on the pitch, and had weaknesses everywhere, particularly at forward. This past offseason they’ve continued to rework the roster, but the difference is the number of quality players that have joined the Reds.

First, obviously, is Canadian soccer legend Dwayne De Rosario. The attacking midfielder was picked up from Houston, delighting TFC fans. He’s getting old, but is still a dynamic presence on the field and has moments of brilliance matched by almost nobody in MLS. And he’s getting a chance to be the star for his hometown club. You think he’ll be energized this year?(DeRo is my favorite player in MLS, though, so I’m admittedly biased.)

Toronto made all sorts of other acquisitions. They traded for veteran Canadian defender Adrian Serioux and signed forward Pablo Vitti, a former member of the Argentina U-20 national team. They also had 3 picks in the SuperDraft, and acquired two of the very few college players who can contribute right away – forward O’Brien White and central midfielder Sam Cronin. All this, and they only lost two players who could even contribute somewhat, with one of them being Seattle’s new defender Tyrone Marshall.

There’s a lot of new talent on Toronto, and in some ways they look similar to how the Sounders’ roster is at the moment. Lots of midfield depth and attacking talent, what looks like a good combination at forward (Vitti and Chad Barrett), an old but still solid national team keeper (Greg Sutton, Canada), and a very thin defense. There’s a lot of ingredients there, but will they go together?

Defense is the main worry, as an injury to any one starter would create a huge talent drop-off. But the thing I’m most curious about is how De Rosario will work with Amado Guevara, who is Toronto’s current attacking midfielder and is pretty good in his own right. What type of formation will accommodate them both? Can they work together and still share the ball with the rest of the midfield? Hard to say. And they will probably still struggle to contend. But it’s clear that Toronto – just like Seattle – will at a minimum be a very entertaining team to watch.

Season Preview - Los Angeles Galaxy

If the Sounders were looking at a list of MLS clubs to emulate, the Los Angeles Galaxy would probably be right at the bottom. Which is exactly where they finished in MLS last year.

Embarrassingly, the MLS team with the most recognition worldwide was also the league's worst club, ending the season in a tie with San Jose on 33 points. And that was with David Beckham playing at mostly full strength and Landon Donovan playing with the strength of 3 men. Their heroics were not nearly enough to make up for an atrocious backline and the ineptitude of goalkeeper Steve Cronin, who lost playing time to the just as bad Josh Wicks. Wicks came from USL club Portland Timbers. If you’re relying on Portland to help fix your team, you know you’re crap.

The Galaxy are looking to put their multiple years of futility behind them. Coach Bruce Arena, a name familiar to any American soccer fan, is leading the renovations. And on paper they look much improved. Dema Kovalenko has been brought in to bring some brutality to the center of midfield; Todd Dunivant (left back) and Mike Magee (forward) are decent veteran options. Donovan Ricketts, Jamaican international goalkeeper, has signed on. The talismanic Donovan looks to be coming back to Los Angeles, fresh off a successful loan to Bayern Munich. Some good college picks have joined the mix, notably huge centerback Omar Gonzalez. Oh yeah, and that Beckham guy may or may not be coming back.

With so many changes, can the Galaxy actually rise up and compete this year? While they’ve suddenly become an experienced team, they’re not made up of washed-up veterans. Ok, maybe a couple. The core of their attack is all back, and the defense is almost completely new except for the lone decent defender they already had, Sean Franklin.

On paper, they look much improved. But that’s the key. On paper.

Arena’s coaching skill is well documented – he might be the best American soccer coach ever – but his last task was New York in 2006 and 2007, and he did nothing to improve that team. And he is notoriously egotistical… how well will he work with the star personalities of Donovan and (presumably) Beckham? Will Donovan even be around all season? Will the young defense be able to form a cohesive unit early on in the season? They didn’t look so hot in some of their preseason games… And will the new keeper Ricketts live up to expectations? They’re really banking on him to close the revolving door they’ve had at the keeper position.

These are, in my mind, the biggest questions facing a team that has plenty of them. And they have to answer a lot to get up into playoff contention in the West. I will say this with confidence, though – at a minimum, the Galaxy have improved enough to get off the bottom of the league. As for how much they’ve improved, we’ll have to wait and see.

The '09 Sounders vs. the '08 Earthquakes - an analysis

A common belief among Sounders fans is that our team is better prepared for MLS than previous expansion teams. A common belief among fans of various other MLS teams is that the Sounders will very much struggle this year, just like previous expansion teams. I fall into the former camp, and I’m going to defend it. I’ll look at how Seattle’s opening day lineup matches up against San Jose’s in 2008, compare the starters at each position, and quantify which team is stronger.

First, the lineups. The projected opening day lineup for Seattle and San Jose’s opening day lineup last year. (NOTE – for any eagle-eyed Quakes fans, yes, Shea Salinas did start the first game at forward, but he really wasn’t a striker so I put Glinton, who mostly started during the beginning of the year.)

San Jose: Joe Cannon, Jason Hernandez, Ryan Cochrane, Nick Garcia, James Riley, Ronnie O'Brien, Ramiro Corrales, Ned Grabavoy, Ivan Guerrero, Kei Kamara, Shea SalinasSeattle (projected): Kasey Keller, Nate Sturgis, Jhon Hurtado, Tyrone Marshall, James Riley, Sebastien Le Toux, Osvaldo Alonso, Brad Evans, Sanna Nyassi, Nate Jaqua, Fredy Montero

Keeper – Joe Cannon vs. Kasey Keller. To be honest this is a really tough one. Cannon was (and still is) one of the best keepers in MLS. Keller is the best American goalkeeper ever. But age and the fact that Keller hasn’t played competitively since last May probably make this a toss-up, though I'm sure Sounders fans will disagree. EVEN

Left back – Jason Hernandez vs. Nate Sturgis. Hernandez is one of the best young up and coming defenders you’ve never heard of, and was a real bright spot for the Quakes. Sturgis was a similar rising prospect a couple years ago, but until he proves that he’s more durable than a tower of Jenga blocks, he’s not at the same level. SAN JOSE

Center back – Tyrone Marshall vs. Nick Garcia. Both veterans on the downsides of their careers. Garcia wins because of being younger, more in his prime, and having a prime-r prime anyways. SAN JOSE

Center back – Ryan Cochrane vs. Jhon Hurtado. As Hurtado has yet to suit up for the Sounders, this is a bit tricky, but Cochrane just was never anything special. SEATTLE

Right back – James Riley vs. James Riley. Riley was a solid MLS player who won’t make any all-star teams, but is a reliable option in defense and a threat going forward. Of course, so is Riley. EVEN

Left wing – Ivan Guererro vs. Sebastien Le Toux. The two are actually very different styles of player – Guererro more defensive, Le Toux more offensive. I’m going to give this to Seba, but it’s close. SEATTLE

Center mid – Osvaldo Alonso vs. Ned Grabavoy. Alonso is young and unproven at the MLS level. But Ned Grabavoy has just never been very good. SEATTLE

Center mid – Brad Evans vs. Ramiro Corrales. Both are above average, yet somewhat unheralded players in the center of the park. This is basically a draw as well. EVEN

Right wing – Ronnie O’Brien vs. Sanna Nyassi. Sorry, Sounders fans. Nyassi may be cheaper and have a brighter future, but last year O’Brien was a huge part of San Jose’s attack and one of the only reasons they’d ever score goals at all. SAN JOSE

Forward - Gavin Glinton vs. Nate Jaqua. Once upon a time Glinton was a decent player. That time was not last year. This is no contest. SEATTLE

Forward - Kei Kamara vs. Fredy Montero. Hahahahahahaha SEATTLE

Totals: San Jose 3, Even 3, Seattle 5

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This could be even more lopsided, really. If the Sounders come out of Argentina with a new left back, they could win that category, and when Freddy Ljungberg returns to play center-mid, that’ll gain another category. And when Pete Vagenas comes back from his injury... well, actually, that'll probably make us worse. Anyways, we’re quite a few steps ahead of where San Jose was last year. As I outlined a couple posts below, San Jose garnered just 10 points in their first 10 games. With a much better overall squad, Seattle should expect more success during the start of their inaugural season.

Lowering Expectations

First 10 games of MLS expansion seasons, 2005-2008

San Jose 2008 - LLWLTLLWLW – 10 points from 10 games
Toronto FC 2007 – LLLLWWLTWL – 10 points
Chivas USA 2005 - LTLLLWLLLL – 4 points
Real Salt Lake 2005 - TLWLTLWWLL – 11 points

- None of these expansion teams had over a .500 record in the first 10 games (first 1/3) of the season.
- None of these teams won a single game until their third match.
- Over the first 5 games these teams accumulated 4, 3, 1 and 4 points respectively.

I think the numbers paint a pretty clear and indisputable picture. Teams entering MLS do not fare well at first. Each team was last in the league at the 1/3 point, except Real Salt Lake who had another expansion team in the league in Chivas USA. It's not a huge leap to assume that expansion clubs need time to adjust to MLS, to begin working as a team. Seattle will have the same problem. So if Seattle has just 10 points (which should be about what we expect, based on the above data) at the beginning of June, and looks hopelessly out of contention, it's not due to poor roster management or poor coaching. It's just the growing pains every expansion team has to overcome.

5 games to look forward to

The MLS schedule for 2009 was released today, giving us the dates and times of every single Sounders game in the inaugural season. There are 30 to pick from, but here’s my take on the five most exciting SSFC matches to look forward to. These dates should be circled on your calendar, preferably in suitable shades of blue or green.

5. Los Angeles at Seattle, May 10. Assuming that David Beckham does suit up for the Galaxy in the coming season, this match will bring a wave of media attention. Assuming that the Sounders’ Freddy Ljungberg has functional legs this season, it will be a matchup between two legitimate European stars, the first of its kind in MLS. Oh, and thanks to the mind of Bruce Arena, the Galaxy might actually be good this season. Hold on to your tickets for this one.

4. Seattle at Columbus, October 3. Not only will this be possibly the hardest match of the season, an away game at the defending champions, but it marks the return to Columbus for former Crew coach/current Sounders coach Sigi Schmid. There was some bad blood over how that transaction was handled, making this match all the more intriguing. The rowdy Crew fans will surely be in full voice.

3. Seattle at San Jose, June 13. In truth, all three Quakes – Sounders clashes will be great games. The teams are relatively geographically close, and have tons of history from the NASL in the 70’s and 80’s. In fact, there has been a trophy created for the winner of this series, aptly named the Heritage Cup. This game will likely determine the winner. Expect to see a big group of Sounders supporters traveling south, creating a fantastic atmosphere.

2. Dallas at Seattle, October 24. The last game of the season is a home one for Seattle, and could have massive playoff implications for one or both of these teams. Plus FC Dallas is a team Seattle has some beef with – they knocked out the USL Sounders in the semis of the ’06 US Open Cup. Sounders supporters are still mad that the match contained less-than-sportsmanlike conduct from several FCD players. I’m looking at you, keeper Dario Sala. And you look like a vampire.

1. New York at Seattle, March 19. Sorry, it’s just too easy. Taking on an MLS Cup finalist on national TV in the first game in franchise history? Very, very hard to top that.

(Except, of course, in the unlikely event of playoffs in ’09. But never say never!)

MLS SuperDuperDraft 2k9 predictions!

We're inside 24 hours to go, with the 2009 SuperDuperDraft beginning at 11 am PT and the Sounders holding the top overall pick. There has been massive speculation about the team's choice, whether to use it or trade it, whether to go for offense or defense. After consulting all the soccer world's top sources for college knowledge, I've come to some fearless conclusions about what exactly will take place tomorrow.

- The Colorado Rapids will, at some point, do something hilariously stupid and/or embarrassing.
- The talking heads on the ESPN broadcast will mispronounce a player's name.
- David Beckham will be discussed.
- Unless Mo Johnston is gagged, bound and shoved in a closet somewhere, Toronto FC will make at least one trade.
- The Sounders will pick a little-known player in the 3rd or 4th round and, after looking him up on Wikipedia/Youtube, you will convince yourself that this player has potential.
- The words 'tremendous upside' will be spoken.
- David Beckham will be discussed some more.
- You will wish Eric Wynalda was on the broadcast.
- You will be extremely thankful Marcelo Balboa is not on the broadcast.
- You will spend at least an hour refreshing your computer, checking on the next Sounders pick, during the second and third rounds.
- The Sounders will select.... Omar Gonzalez!
- Or Steve Zakuani.
- Or Sam Cronin.
- Or trade the pick.
- You will wish that March 19 was tomorrow.

The Expansion Draft Pre-Func

At long last, the list of players exposed for Seattle to steal from has been finalized. There are some surprises, both of players protected and unprotected. And now the two masterminds in the Sounders front office are going to be putting in some serious analyzation, because in under 48 hours they must make their picks. And while nobody can say for sure what their strategy is, I think I'm pretty well qualified to take a stab at it.

Near-Locks

Houston left Nate Jaqua (F, 160k) unprotected. So there's one player. A pleasant surprise was New York casting out Jeff Parke (D, 60k), apparently wanting to distance themselves from his suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. But Parke said all the right things, and thanks to NYRB's playoff run, has just 4 games left on his suspension. The positives? New York's best, most solid defender, one who can anchor a backline, at just 60 thousand a year. Yes, please.

Too Much Good Stuff

When a team is as stacked as the champions Columbus (congrats, by the way), they're gonna lose a good player. I'm going to change my mind on this one - yesterday I was sold on Brad Evans, but I'm going to have to go with Eddie Gaven (M, 165k). His only downside is his contract size, and he's good enough (and the rest of these players are inexpensive enough) that picking him makes sense. But if you prefer Evans, Pat Noonan or even Adam Moffat, I wouldn't argue.

The Question Marks

- Is Marco Pappa (M, 35k) able and willing to move to Seattle? He's currently on loan to Chicago, and that might the Guatemalan international from being picked. If not, he's the best bargain in the draft.
-Is Ian Joy (D, 120k) on his way to Europe? If not, he's a left-back starter for sure.

The Only Ones From Their Teams That Are Worth It

Johann Smith (M, 48k) of Toronto and Aaron Pitchkolan (D, 33) from Dallas fall into this category. The latter is a solid defender who can slot in anywhere, probably deserves a chance to start and might just get it. The former, Smith, I really believe is poised to have a breakout season. But if not, he'd at least provide a jolt of speed off the bench.

The International Defenders

Most of you will probably disagree with me right here. But allow me to state my case. I'd absolutely love to take Kosuke Kimura (D, 33k) from Colorado. He (mostly) started at right back for them this year and performed admirably on a team that was in various stages of chaos during the season. He was a player I identified early on this year (along with Ryan Johnson of San Jose), and I'm rather shocked he wasn't protected, as are many Colorado fans. Apparently he counts as an international player, but at age 24 he's still worth it. The other one is Gabriel Badilla (D, 120k) of New England which honestly is a bit of a gamble, but if it pays off he's a center-back starter to pair with Parke. He's been capped for Costa Rica, so he's no slouch.

Last And Possibly Least...

Kansas City exposed their starting keeper, Kevin Hartman, for reasons unbeknownst to me. It seems to make a lot of sense for the Sounders to take him, trade him to LA (his old club) in exchange for money/allocation, as the Galaxy have a gaping hole at the goalkeeper position. But if that doesn't happen, then it's probably a toss-up between 2 DC players. Defensive mid Joe Vide is tempting, but I'd prefer Francis Doe (F, 40k). I love his potential, and even if it doesn't develop this year, 40k for a semi-productive reserve forward is a steal.

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So in summary here are my picks. I'd take 2 strikers (Doe, Jaqua), 3 midfielders (Pappa, Smith, Evans), and 5 defenders (Parke, Badilla, Kimura, Pitchkolan, Joy). The only 'hole' at this point is in defensive midfield, and that's because Kenji Treschuk of the USL Sounders will probably get a deserved crack at the starting lineup in that spot. These guys are all capable starters, save Doe, who would come off the bench with Pitchkolan and Smith. On talent and potential alone, it'd be hard to beat this group. But the best part? They make a combined $814,000. And with the salary cap around $2.3 millin, there'd be tons of money left for whatever international players we wanted. Hell, we could trade for another DP slot if we wanted! (Which I do not endorse.)

Of course, there's no way that this is how Wednesday's draft will turn out. But if it does, you Sounders fans should be pretty pleased.

The most efficient players in MLS

Major League Soccer has a dearth of statistical information. Certainly less than the other major sports in America. So here is the start of my effort to change that.

What I have done is taken all the attacking players (strikers and midfielders) and calculated how often they either score or get an assist. It's a way of looking at the raw numbers to try and account for factors like injuries or national team callups. Without further ado, Adu or Edu, here are the 10 most efficient players in MLS for the 2008 season. The number is in minutes per point scored (assists or goals).

73.66 Donovan LAG
85.23 Barros Schelotto CLB
93.05 J. Moreno DCU
93.71 Eskandarian CHV
101.00 Casey COL
109.50 Gordon LAG
112.63 Jaqua HOU
114.33 Ralston NE
115.00 Angel NY
116.44 Ching HOU

Quick thoughts - You would obviously expect strikers to score higher on these totals, as they are most involved with the offensive attack. So a guy like Schelotto totaling a point every 85 minutes is amazing. That's more than a goal or assist a game! So with that in mind, Steve Ralston of New England had a brilliant and underrated season as well. Alecko Eskandarian didn't play as much as some of these guys, but he was damn efficient when he did. And what's Alan Gordon doing on this list?

It's way late so I'll have more numbers in the morning. Want the whole list, email me.

It's Columbus Day!

It seems appropriate to celebrate the best team in Major League Soccer on Columbus Day. So let's give it up for the Crew, the Supporters Shield winners of 2008 and the unquestionable top squad in the league. Columbus tends to not get a lot of respect (admittedly, I think I picked them to miss the playoffs at the start of the season) so their storybook season is all the sweeter.The obvious question arises: how did they do it? What caused their transformation, in just one offseason without many changes, from a bottom-of-the-league side into a yellow and black wrecking ball? The obvious answer seems to be having Guillermo Barros Schelotto, who is more like a magician than a soccer player, for a full season. Their midfield maestro has racked up almost 20 assists in just over 20 games, and is one of two serious candidates for MVP honors. (The other, obviously, is LA's Landon Donovan.) But although GBS is an essential part of their team and a real delight to watch, it's not all on his Argentinian shoulders. The Crew have won with and without him. No, the answer isn't just one or two players - it's all of them.

No side has more top-to-bottom talent than the Crew, save maybe Houston, the top club in the West. Columbus has very capable defenders, with starter-quality players going 5 or 6 deep and led by veteran fan-favorite Frankie Hejduk. They have more than capable goalkeeping, with Will Hesmer having the season of his life. The midfield is led by Schelotto, but there's quality from him to wings Robbie Rogers and Emmanuel Ekpo to CDM Brian Carroll. They're so stacked for talent that the excellent Pat Noonan, recently back from Europe, is largely superfluous. Their substitutes are by far the best in MLS. And the fans have responded with greatly improved crowds and invigorated supporters groups, proving that the Buckeyes aren't the only game in town.

The teams with the biggest stars have been the biggest flops this year, with DC United and the LA Galaxy having hugely dissappointing seasons. So hat's off to the Columbus Crew, showing the league that the key to winning in Major League Soccer is to assemble an all-around talented squad, even if the names are a little less flashy. But you'd better win the Cup this year, Columbus. I sure won't be cheering for you in 2009!

The futility of expansion teams: A brief history

2008 - San Jose, on pace for 25 points in 30 games. 

Last place in MLS.

2007 - Toronto FC, 25 points in 30 games.

Last place in MLS.

2005 - Chivas USA, 18 points in 32 games. 

Last place in MLS.

2005 - Real Salt Lake, 20 points in 32 games. 

2nd to last place in MLS.

Assuming San Jose doesn't improve a huge amount in a short time period, each of the last 4 expansion teams to enter MLS will have gone on to have hilariously pathetic seasons. The only one not to be last place in the league was Real Salt Lake, only because the other expansion team was even worse. The good folks running Seattle Sounders FC have said that they want to be competitive immediately, but based on recent history, this seems quite unlikely to happen. Just having a team in MLS should be enough for the 2009 season, Sounders fans. Lets keep our expectations in check.

Signs of Sounders FC sponsor

It's still a year until Seattle Sounders FC will make its impact on MLS, but the main sponsor - Xbox 360 - is already doing so. Signboard advertisements with the Xbox 360 logo have been at the majority of, if not all, recent MLS games. I saw them on tonight's Primetime Thursday game on ESPN, as well as last Saturday's Kansas City - Columbus clash. 

A brief look at MLS

With nothing major of note on the horizon for Seattle MLS, let's take a quick look at the league they will be entering. (I'm not going to revisit my preseason predictions, because they would probably look wildly different than the actual state of the league.) There are a couple of things that stand out.

First, this wild season has thus far proven that any team can beat any other team on any given day. This was most clearly shown this past weekend, when San Jose beat Columbus and DC United edged Chicago - both victories coming on the road. Yes, the two worst teams in MLS beat two of the best, away from home. 

The second, and most interesting thing for Sounders FC fans, is the power imbalance between the two conferences. The current three best teams (New England, along with the aforementioned Columbus and Chicago) are all in the East. If the 4th place team in the East (Toronto FC) were in the West, they would be tied for first. In addition, only one Eastern Conference team has more than 4 losses, and there are currently 5 such teams in the West. Any way you spin it, the East is clearly the superior conference. If this continues to hold true into next year, the Sounders, who will obviously be joining the Western Conference, will have a bit of an advantage to their hopes of making the playoffs.

Leaders of the attack

Going into the 2008 MLS season, the Colorado Rapids were expected to be a mediocre team just contending for a playoff spot. The Columbus Crew were supposed to be on the outside looking in at the playoffs and Toronto, well, Toronto FC were widely predicted to be in a battle with San Jose for the label of 'worst team in MLS'. 

Of course, all three teams have started off very brightly, and the common factor can easily be found. Each has a dynamic central attacking midfielder pulling the strings: Columbus has Guillermo Barros Schelotto (shown here), Colorado is led by their prize offseason acquisition Christian Gomez, and Toronto just recently picked up the mercurial but extremely talented Amado Guevara (who just turned in a 2 goal performance, leading the Canadian club to their third straight win). Each of those players is definitely in the All-Star running, and all are very exciting to watch. 

Which brings us to Seattle. For 2009, the Sounders will be bringing up a few players from the USL side, and sprinkling in several more from the expansion draft. But neither of these routes of player acquisition is going to bring in a dangerous attacking midfielder, and if the Sounders run a diamond midfield (which the most likely coaching candidate, current Seattle coach Brian Schmetzer, does), the importance of this position will be magnified even more. In their worldwide search for a Designated Player and other international talent, Adrian Hanauer and co. would be wise to make filling this position their number one priority. 

Mexico-China a success, Brazil-Canada up next

Does one good turnout deserve another?

That may be the case in Seattle soccer. The national teams of Brazil and Canada are reportedly close to an agreement to play a friendly match sometime this summer at Qwest Field. This comes on the heels of the smashing success of the Mexico-China friendly at the same stadium, which Mexico won 1-0. Originally sales for this match were limited to the lower bowl of 24,000, but the match ended up selling more than DOUBLE that amount of tickets - over 56,000 were in attendance!

The Brazil-Canada match isn't finalized and no date has been set, but it will surely draw a comparable crowd. Brazil is always a big draw wherever they play, and the fact that the match should take place in the summer means that many Brazilian stars in European leagues (dare we say Ronaldinho?) will be available. They'll face an almost certainly outmatched Canadian side that could feature Houston Dynamo catalyst Dwayne Derosario (our fave MLS player). We'll have more details as we get them.

Here's a video featuring goals from both Ronaldinho and Derosario.
And here's the Seattle PI blurb.

Our MLS Predictions

For those not in the know, or those distracted by the naming of Seattle MLS (vote Sounders!), the 2008 MLS season begins tomorrow. Obviously we're well qualified to make these predictions, since we watched about 8 games overall last year. And these are going to be totally biased for our likes/dislikes of certain teams (say goodbye to the playoffs, Dallas!) Still, for the record and for all you Seattle soccer fans who somehow know less about the league than we do, here's how we think each team in MLS will finish.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Houston Dynamo - 1st
Chivas USA - 2nd
Colorado Rapids - 3rd
LA Galaxy - 4th
FC Dallas - 5th
San Jose Earthquakes - 6th
Real Salt Lake - 7th

EASTERN CONFERENCE
1st - DC United
2nd - Chicago Fire
3rd - New York Red Bulls*
4th - New England Revolution
5th - Kansas City Wizards
6th - Columbus Crew
7th - Toronto FC





*Seriously, are they 'Red Bull New York' or the 'New York Red Bulls?' Their official home page lists both, for crying out loud.