The mystery of the missing coach

November 26 - MLS Expansion Draft

January 18 - MLS Draft

January 28 - Sounders FC Training camp begins

2nd or 3rd week of March - Inaugural Sounders FC home match
??????? - Head Coach is announced

As you can see by the above timeline, the expansion draft is fast approaching. In under 2 weeks the Sounders will add 10 players and finally have enough to construct a full side. The question, however, remains - who will be doing the construction? Logic suggests that it might be a good idea to have the coach in place prior to the draft, so an announcement should be coming soon. Like we haven't heard that before.

Adrian Hanauer is notorious for playing events close to the chest and not wanting information to leak ahead of time, so who knows how far along in the process the Sounders are. They may not have had the chance to interview one candidate, current Columbus head coach Sigi Schmidt, who has been linked with the job by multiple online sources. But since his side is heading to MLS Cup next Sunday, he'd presumably be unable to interview for a new team in between. And reportedly the Sounders were denied permission to speak with him. I've never thought Sigi ever had a chance of happening, anyways. He's about to have a bunch of money thrown at him by Columbus ownership, and he's crafted the Crew into the best team in the league over the last few years. I think he stays put.

The other major candidates are currently part of teams who already are out of the playoffs - Brian Schmetzer (Seattle) Preki (Chivas), John Spencer and Dom Kinnear (Houston), Paul Mariner (New England). All crashed out last week, save for the USL Sounders who went out in the first round of their playoffs. I would not be in the least bit surprised if some or all of those names are going through the interview process this week. With that timeframe in mind, the new coach very well could be announced as soon as next Monday, or in the days following.

Oh, you want a prediction? At the risk of sacrificing my stellar prognostication reputation, I think Preki gets the nod.

The coaching candidates

Within a month or two, the first-ever Sounders FC coach will have been anointed. The Sounders front office has a list of potential candidates, but they won't tell anyone who is on it, save the one blindingly obvious possibility. It might not be current Sounders coach Brian Schmetzer, however, because they 'want someone with MLS experience.' If he doesn't get the head job, I fully expect Schmetzer to be named as assistant coach. With that in mind, here are my top 5 most-likely coaching candidates for the Sounders.

Preki
Current job: Head coach, Chivas USA
Northwest connection: 1 year with Tacoma Stars, good friend of Brian Schmetzer
Positives: Knows MLS extremely well and would have great insight on current players in the league, would work well with Schmetzer as an assistant coach, is relatively young, could coach an attacking style.
Negatives: Controversial among Chivas fans – has been criticized for tactical decisions and a perceived inability to motivate. His squad has underperformed this year.
Random fact: Is the only 2-time MLS MVP (’97. ’03) and the all-time MLS leader in points.

Brian Schmetzer
Current job: Head coach, Seattle Sounders (USL)
Northwest connection: Born here, grew up here, played here (1980-83, 85), coached here (1988-present)
Positives: Knows the city of Seattle and many Sounders players, already works well with GM Adrian Hanauer, has proven USL track record of success, is loved by USL Sounders fans.
Negatives: Reportedly the Sounders FC want someone with MLS experience, and Schmetzer has none. Might not be able to deal with the egos of big-money star players.
Random fact: Before coaching the Sounders, he simply ran his construction business and coached his son’s youth team.

Fernando Clavijo
Current job: nope
Most recent job: Head coach, Colorado Rapids
Northwest connection: Coached Seattle Seadogs (1995-97)
Positives: Has coached with Schmetzer before, is good at developing young players.
Negatives: Was not very good in his time with Colorado, little team success, perennial underachievers. Not a good tactician. Hated by Rapids fans.
Random fact: Once coached an indoor team called the Florida ThunderCats. I kid you not.

Peter Nowak
Current job: Assistant coach, U.S. National Team
Northwest connection: none
Positives: Great all-around coach, knows MLS and US players extremely well, won an MLS Cup in 3 years as D.C. United head coach.
Negatives: Underperformed as coach of USA Olympic team this summer. Probably isn’t interested in Sounders job.
Random fact: Captained the Polish national team for 3 years in his playing days.

Paul Mariner
Current job: Assistant coach, New England Revolution
Northwest connection: none
Positives: Regarded as the top assistant in MLS, works very well with players, has stated his desire for the Sounders job, would provide an opportunity for countless ‘Seattle Mariner’ puns.
Negatives: Has not been a head coach at a level higher than youth soccer, might not be able to coach the attacking style of soccer Seattle wants.
Random fact: Scored the winning goal for England in a do-or-die match that sent them to the 1982 World Cup.

Other possible candidates include Crew coach Sigi Schmidt and Houston assistant John Spencer, but I don’t think either of them will take the job. Sigi is probably happy with league-leading Columbus, and Spencer probably would prefer the Colorado job, as he was a fan favorite there in his playing days.

The verdict? I'd prefer Preki or Nowak, but I expect Mariner to be named the head coach eventually. And that's not a bad thing, he's a very strong candidate. But, as always, we will have to wait and see.

My expansion draft wishlist

Looking for players in MLS to keep your eye on? Here are 10 players I think will be available in the expansion draft for the Sounders that would be worth picking up.

Brandon Prideaux – Chicago, Defender
Brian Carroll - Columbus, D-Midfielder
Nate Jaqua- Houston, Striker
Justin (NOT Ryan) Braun – Chivas USA, Striker
Julius James – Toronto, Defender
Khano Smith – New England, Wing Midfielder
Santino Quaranta – DC United, Striker
Ian Joy – Real Salt Lake, Defender
Omar Cummings– Colorado, Midfielder
Aaron Hohlbein – KC, D-Midfielder

Of these 10, Prideaux and Carroll are the established and savvy veterans, and Cummings and James the high-upside rookies. The rest fall somewhere in between. All would look good in a Sounders kit next year.

The effect of a designated player

The cloud constantly hovering around the Sounders FC is whether they will sign a designated player, and if so, who it will be. 5 teams in MLS currently have DP's on their roster; DC United has two. How are those teams doing?

Chicago Fire. DP: Cuahtemoc Blanco. Points: 32. Rank: 3rd (of 14).
DC United. DP: Luciano Emilio, Marcelo Gallardo. Points: 28. Rank: T5th.
Kansas City Wizards. DP: Claudio Lopez. Points: 25. Rank: T8th.
LA Galaxy. DP: That Beckham guy. Points: 24. Rank: T11th.
NY Red Bulls. DP: Juan Pablo Angel. Points: 25. Rank: T8th.

Honestly, there's not a lot to be made here because there's so much parity in MLS this year. Just 13 points separate the best team from the worst. But clearly, having a designated player does not immediately translate to wins. Just look at the MLS Cup finalists of last year, New England and Houston, and the top teams in each conference this year, which are... uh, New England and Houston.

Obviously, the purpose of a DP is not just to win, but also to 'sell' the team, locally and nationally. And in this case, the rule (and those players added under it) has been working quite well. Los Angeles leads the league in attendance by a wide margin, with DC and Chicago in 3rd and 4th respectively. If you're watching SportsCenter for some unfathomable reason and you see an MLS highlight, chances are it's a Marcello Gallardo wonder strike or a Blanco bomb. And if you by chance see someone wearing an MLS jersey, there's a 75% chance of a Los Angeles kit, number 23. Roth and Hanauer know this, and will surely be looking for someone to rival the appeal of the aforementioned three players.

Appeal, obviously, isn't everything. Remember Denilson, the aging Brazilian star FC Dallas picked up last summer? If you don't, here's a recap: he was out to make a quick buck, was out of form, and his team crashed out of the first round of the playoffs before he was sent out of Dallas altogether. If used improperly, the DP can have huge negative effects, like tying up a ton of money in one player and possibly unbalancing team chemistry. So when the Sounders front office men tell us that they are in no hurry to add their one superstar player, and are waiting for the perfect player to come along, believe them and be thankful. It's the biggest decision this franchise has left to make for 2009.

(But Adrian, if you want to go ahead and ink Thierry Henry, just go ahead and do it.)

The massive 2009 roster post

Most people would think that building an expansion team that could contend from day one would be an impossible task. But in the case of the next expansion team to enter MLS, this may not be the case. Here's my first attempt at creating a possible, realistic and strong roster for Seattle Sounders FC in 2009.

Current Sounders players: (F) Sebastien Le Toux is already signed, and (G) Chris Eylander will surely soon follow suit. There are a number of players who could follow them, but at this point I'd take (D) Zach Scott, (D) Taylor Graham, (M) Kenji Treschuk and (M) Josh Gardner.

Expansion draft: Some of the better teams in MLS are going to have good players available due to the deepness of their squads. (M) Khano Smith from New England and (M) Brian Carroll from Columbus should be available. (D, Chicago) Wilman Conde could probably be had, as long as he doesn't try and go to Europe in the offseason. (D, Toronto) Julius James is inexperienced and somewhat shaky, but his ridiculous athleticism means he has upside as well as an ability to finish on set-pieces. Local boy (D) Craig Waibel could be had from Houston. Injury-prone (F) Maykel Galindo, the former Sounder, might be available from Chivas USA. If not, we could just make a deal, trading them a bit of allocation money or something.

International signings: this is where the good stuff happens. First off, the rumors are swirling about this guy.I think there's an above 50% chance that the man pictured, legendary American and Washingtonian (G) Kasey Keller is a Sounder next year. He wants to be here and the team wants him. As is the case so often in MLS, something will be worked out, as it was recently to grant Brian McBride's wishes of playing for his hometown Chicago side. And the Sounders might be first in line to acquire him, anyways. The land of MLS rules and regulations is a murky, treacherous place, but with the guidance of Adrian Hanauer, we should be able to bring Keller safely to Seattle.

Some other players will be picked up internationally as well. I'll stick with my hunch that someone like (M) Zinha will be picked up to do great things for the Sounders attack. If not, there are a bunch of other players that could also fill this role (the previously mentioned Eliseo Quintanilla, Benny Feilhaber, Shinji Ono...) Another forward, like former Sounder Cam Weaver, will probably be added, and if not him it could be Preston Zimmerman. And the defense might need some extra bolstering as well. Hanauer could use his Costa Rican contacts to help add someone like the experienced (D) Carlos Castro.

College draft: The Sounders will get a bunch of young talent here, but probably only their #1 draft pick will make an major impact. And if it's (F) Marcus Tracy from Wake Forest, that could happen right away. He's good.

So after all that, we're left with 18 players for the senior roster (and a few more for the developmental, but I'm not going to go into that). Here's how those positions are filled in my proposed roster, as well as a possible starting 11.

Forwards: Nate Jaqua, Maykel Galindo, Cam Weaver, Marcus Tracy
Midfielders: Zinha, Brian Carroll, Sebastien Le Toux, Khano Smith, Josh Gardner, Kenji Treschuk
Defenders: Carlos Castro, Taylor Graham, Wilman Conde, Craig Waibel, Zach Scott, Julius James
Goalkeepers: Kasey Keller, Chris Eylander

----------Jaqua----------Galindo-----------
-----------------Zinha-----------------------
Smith--------Carroll-------------Le Toux
Castro---Graham---Conde---Waibel
---------------Keller--------------------

Now... how good would this lineup be? Smith and Le Toux both have fabulous pace, and should fit quite well into the attacking style the Sounders say they want to play. The defense is savvy and experienced, and the combination of Keller and Eylander would be the best 1-2 keeper duo in the league, hands down. There's good depth at forward, and if Tracy produces this year like I believe he can, he'll be a force. The only weakness could be if Zinha (or whatever international CAM we end up with) is injured for a lengthy period of time. I guess I'd trade Colorado for Ciaran O'Brien and stash him in the reserve league/call him up as soon as someone got injured. Other than that, this side looks - to me - like one that could compete in MLS next year. But I'd love to hear what you think.

(And if you're curious, yes, this would fit under the MLS salary cap.)

The attacking midfielder post

Almost indisputably, the most important position that the Sounders FC will have to fill is that of the offensive midfielder. Goalkeeper (Chris Eylander as soon as he's signed, possibly Kasey Keller) and striker (Sebastien Le Toux and Nate Jaqua) are more or less spoken for, and that's a good thing. But a quality player to lead the Sounders attack in 2009 may be a hard commodity to come by.

Make no mistake, a key player at the attacking midfield spot can make all the difference in MLS. Exhibit A: Recently acquired Amado Guevara, who has played a big role in Toronto FC's 1 year transformation from piddling expansion team to serious title contender. Exhibit B: Guillermo Barros Schelloto (whom my soccer loving, MLS neophite father refers to as "Skeletor"). He is the heart of the Columbus Crew, scoring a goal and assisting on 2 more today. MLS powers Houston and Chicago have international stars running their attack as well. On the other hand, expansion San Jose have a converted holding midfielder running their attack. Needless to say, they are bad.

So how will Seattle avoid that bad-ness? They don't have an MLS quality player to slot in on the USL Sounders. Current AM Leighton O'Brien has a good work rate, but he's old and just doesn't have the quality to cut it against better opponents for a full season. And such a player won't come from the expansion draft, either. The best player I can project being available would be Andy Williams of Real Salt Lake, who is really not your prototypical AM and is aging anyways. No, barring some bizarre trade, the leader of our attack will have to come from outside the country.

If money is no object, the ideal player to bring in to Seattle would be the Mexican international Antonio Naelson, better known as Zinha. Although he's on the wrong side of 30 and is just 5'5", he has shown no signs of weakening as a player. And what a player he is. Zinha possesses excellent touch, fantastic vision for a little guy and is more than capable of blasting in the occasional long-range goal. He has 40 appearances for the Mexican national team, even scoring against the USA a couple of years ago. Best of all, he's been strongly rumored to be interested in coming to America at some point in his career. As long as the Sounders ownership is willing to loosen the drawstrings, Zinha would be the perfect designated player and attacking midfielder.

If you're looking for a more 'attainable' name who could fill this position, Eliseo Quintanilla might be your guy. The 25 year old Salvadorian has been on a tear for his national team (22 games, 12 goals) as of late, which has brought about murmurs of his interest in returning to MLS. (He had a brief, injury-plagued spell at DC United a few years back.) Quintanilla is also small in stature but tall in talent, with his standout ability being his set-piece mastery. For whatever it's worth, and it may be nothing, he's been linked to both FC Dallas and San Jose. He could have a tie to Seattle, as well - he plays for the Costa Rican powerhouse club Alajuelense, from whom the Sounders recently signed defender Michael Rodriguez. Make no mistake, he's at least vaguely on the radar of the Sounders brass.